We All Fall Down Part 1: The national intelligence assessments
This is the first of a four-part series analysing the international reactions to the chemical attacks in Damascus on 21 August. Part 2 addresses how the public intelligence assessments have been used to try and justify military interventions against Syrian forces and military installations. Part 3 attempts to construct a counter-factual argument in order to determine whether insurgent forces can be held responsible for the chemical attacks. Part 4 investigates the consequences of international reactions for the future of the norm against chemical weapons (CW). Over the past 10 days the French, UK and US governments published intelligence summaries …
US assessment of chemical weapons attack near Damascus
The US State Department has just published the Government Assessment of the Syrian Government’s Use of Chemical Weapons on August 21, 2013 and a map of the suburbs affected. This is the first credible account of events released by any government. Credible, because it contains assertions and caveats, but most importantly, because its details are falsifiable. The elements can be verified against other sources, most notably the preliminary report of the UN investigative team, which should be with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon within the next 72 hours or so (Sunday or Monday). The different sources will need parsing. The …
Syria: incendiary weapon used against civilians
The BBC carries very graphic footage of the aftermath of an incendiary bomb dropped by a fighter jet on to a school playground in the north of Syria. Scores of children have napalm-like burns over their bodies. An incendiary weapon is not a chemical weapon as defined by the Chemical Weapons Convention, because it harms humans through heat rather than the direct effects of poisoning. They include weapons such as napalm or white phosphorus. Incendiary weapons are banned by the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (also known as the Inhumane Weapons Convention), Protocol III. Article I defines an incendiary weapon …
A simple calculation
Syrian cheap jerseys civil der war: Death cheap nba jerseys toll Today: Chemical warfare: 350 Syria: Conventional major warfare: 100,000 After western military to action wholesale nba jerseys to restore the norm against Plush chemical warfare: Chemical warfare: 350 Conventional wholesale nba jerseys warfare: 【蘆洲居酒屋推薦】蘆洲人最愛的創意料理招牌酥脆半身雞，來蘆洲絕對不能錯過！ 100,200 Share this: LinkedIn Twitter Facebook Google Reddit Email …
Syria: Should UN Investigators Pass Judgement?
With the horrific events of the past two days in several Damascus suburbs dominating the airwaves and press reports, the ability to establish rough time lines of events and more detailed circumscriptions of the areas affected allows more and more to conclude that several more or less simultaneous chemical weapon (CW) attacks took place in the very early morning hours of 21 August. While the number of casualties — affected survivors and fatalities — is impossible to establish right now, it is clear that scores, if not hundreds of people fell victim to some asphyxiant. Several chemical warfare agents are …
Apparently major chemical weapons attack near Damascus reported
As I am writing, disturbing news reports are coming in of a major chemical attack on the eastern eastern outskirts of Damascus (Ghouta district). According to images and film footage posted to the Internet by opponents to the al-Assad regime, many casualties, including fatalities can be seen. Supplementary visual testimony strongly indicates poisoning. [Images are graphic and should be viewed with caution!] In past blog postings and commentaries I have been sceptical of CW claims, because the narrative accompanying images and film footage did not correspond with what could be seen. More importantly, a number of things one would expect …